One round of the 2018 NFL playoffs is in the books. Now we’re previewing the divisional game slate with a rundown for each matchup from Dan Graziano, score predictions from our NFL Nation reporters and Football Power Index projections from ESPN Stats & Information.
Point spread: KC -5 | Matchup quality: 70.3 (of 100)
The Chiefs don’t want to talk about the 28-point lead they blew after halftime to Andrew Luck and the Colts in a playoff game five years ago in Indy. They don’t really want to talk about last year’s 18-point collapse in the second half at home to the Titans. Or the fact that they’re 0-6 in home playoff games since Joe Montana won one for them a quarter-century ago. They’re focused on a Colts team that has won 10 of their past 11 games and may be the hottest No. 6 seed in playoff history. Patrick Mahomes makes his first playoff start, but after a 50-touchdown, 5,000-yard passing season, it’s hard to believe anything fazes this young man. Yet the Colts ran for 200 yards against a tough Texans defense last Saturday and should be able to find plenty of room to run against a much more permissive Kansas City D. — Graziano
FPI win projection: KC, 74.9 percent. There should be plenty of offense in this game, as Mahomes (50) and Luck (39) combined for 89 passing scores this regular season, the most in any QB matchup in postseason history, according to Elias Sports Bureau research. While the Colts’ defense has been better as of late, ranking fifth in the NFL in efficiency during their 10-1 stretch, Kansas City has the edge, according to FPI (No. 1 offense in terms of efficiency at 85.1 and the league leader in Total QBR in Mahomes at 81.6).
Matchup to watch: Marlon Mack vs. the Chiefs’ front seven. The Kansas City defense ranked No. 27 versus the run during the regular season, giving up 132.1 yards per game. Look for the Colts to lean on their power run game with Mack. Block down and pull. The idea here is to control the line of scrimmage, eat clock and limit possessions for Mahomes. Let those big boys go to work up front. — Bowen
Betting nuggets: The Colts are 6-0 both against the spread and straight up in their six games against teams with a winning record this season. Andy Reid, on the other hand, has lost outright in each of his past four games as a home favorite in the postseason, including twice with Kansas City. — Nelson
Officiating scouting report: Referee John Hussey averaged 14.6 flags per game during the regular season, fifth fewest in the NFL. That frequency will be tested by the Chiefs, who were the most penalized team in the league (163). Their defensive secondary was especially grabby, committing a…